Tailwinds Strengthening - Guidance Upgraded

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Stock Aspen Group (APZ.ASX)
Release Time 16 Oct 2025, 12:09 p.m.
Price Sensitive Yes
 Tailwinds Strengthening - Guidance Upgraded
Key Points
  • Rental listings 25% below average, vacancy rate at record low of 1.5%
  • Rental growth accelerating due to housing supply constraints
  • Aspen's rental and development businesses performing strongly
Full Summary

Aspen Group (ASX: APZ) is pleased to announce continued strong momentum across the business and an upgrade to FY26 Pre Tax Underlying Earnings1 guidance to 20.1 cents per security, an increase of 20% on the FY25 result and 6% above initial guidance. Housing shortages are becoming more acute, with rental listings about 25% below average and the rental vacancy rate dropping to a new record low of 1.5%. The growth in average national rent has started accelerating again. Demand is being fueled by population growth and evolving housing requirements, while supply remains constrained. Aspen's long stay rental pool remains essentially full, and rental rates have continued to increase in real terms. The company's short stay pool has also seen a material increase in profitability, with investments in park facilities and cabins improving customer appeal and reducing operating costs. Development activity has also been strong, with 30 settlements in 1Q FY26, up 25% on the prior corresponding period, and an average profit margin of 31%. FY26 YTD settlements and contracts on hand total 112, up 40 over the past two months and surpassing total settlements for all of FY25 of 111. Aspen has also entered into contracts to acquire a large strata-titled commercial component of a mixed-use property in Surry Hills, Sydney, which will serve as the company's new headquarters.

Guidance
  • NRI $39.0m - up 12%
  • Development Profit $19.5m (150 Lifestyle houses and Residential land lots) - up 53%
  • EBITDA $49.5m - up 20%
  • Pre Tax EPS 20.1 cents - up 20%
  • DPS 11.0 cents - up 10%
Outlook

Aspen Group Limited (the company entity in our stapled structure) may commence paying tax in FY26 after exhausting historic tax losses. We currently estimate an effective tax rate range of 0-5% of the Group's total pre-tax Underlying Earnings in FY26 (estimated range of 5-10% from FY27).