Frontier Energy Upgrades Revenue Forecasts Due to Increased Reserve Capacity Credits
Key points
- Increased Reserve Capacity Credits (RCCs) from 88MW to 99MW
- Annual Reserve Capacity Payment (RCP) rises to ~$36 million
- Updated average annual revenue forecast to ~$76 million
Full summary
Frontier Energy Limited (ASX: FHE) announced that the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) increased the Reserve Capacity Credits (RCCs) allocated to Stage One of the Waroona Renewable Energy Project from 88MW to 99MW. This increase is expected to raise the annual Reserve Capacity Payment (RCP) to approximately $36 million, up from $32 million. The Project will receive a fixed Reserve Capacity Price of $360,700/MW per annum for each RCC until 30 September 2032. Frontier has updated its average annual forecasts for Stage One for the period from first generation to 30 September 2032, with average annual revenue now estimated at $76 million, EBITDA at $66 million, and free cash flow at $38 million. The increase in RCCs reflects amendments to the Electricity System and Market Rules, which have increased the contribution of the Project's intermittent renewable generation (solar) component of the Project's RCC allocation. Frontier considers this increase to be a one-off, sustained uplift in RCCs to be received by the Project moving forward, resulting from the transition to the revised assessment framework.
Guidance
Average annual revenue forecast increased to $76 million, EBITDA to $66 million, free cash flow to $38 million
Outlook
Frontier Energy Ltd. expects the updated financial forecasts to reflect the increased RCCs, leading to sustained uplift in revenue and profitability.
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